5 ways new political maps affect the Inland Empire (2024)

The Inland Empire’s political landscape now has a new map.

Following months of work, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission late Monday, Dec. 20, finalized new state legislative and congressional districts. The process, known as redistricting, happens every 10 years after the census.

When it comes to Riverside and San Bernardino counties, the final maps don’t look much different from draft maps released Nov. 10. Barring a successful court challenge, the new districts will shape how Inland residents are represented in Sacramento and Washington, D.C. for the next decade.

Here’s a look at what the new districts mean for the region.

Some incumbents safer, others less so

The maps are a boon to some members of the Inland congressional delegation. Reps. Jay Obernolte, R-Big Bear Lake; and Pete Aguilar, D-San Bernardino; have easier paths to re-election with districts that are redder and bluer, respectively.

Aguilar on Tuesday, Dec. 21, announced he would run in his new district, which includes many of the cities — Redlands, San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto, Grand Terrace, Fontana and Rancho Cucamonga — from his original district.

“My family has called the Inland Empire home for four generations and it’s an honor to serve as the voice of our community in Congress,” Aguilar said in a news release.

Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Palm Desert, was on the GOP’s 2022 target list. But his district was split in a way that creates a more Democratic-friendly district that includes the far eastern ends of Riverside and San Bernardino counties and Imperial County.

Ruiz announced he would run in this new district shortly after the final maps came out.

One incumbent in a potentially more competitive district is Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, who loses the red cities of Temecula and Murrieta and gains a Democratic stronghold in Palm Springs.

Calvert goes from a district that Donald Trump won by 7 percentage points in 2020 to one that Trump won by just 1 percentage point, redistricting expert David Wasserman tweeted. Democrats Shrina Kurani, Brandon Mosely and Will Rollins have announced plans to run against Calvert in 2022.

“(The district) looks absolutely ridiculous on a map, and because registered Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied, it could possibly be one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country over the next few election cycles,” Inland Democratic consultant Derek Humphrey said via email.

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Calvert announced Tuesday that he would run for re-election in the new 41st Congressional District, which includes Corona, Norco, Lake Elsinore, Wildomar, Menifee, Canyon Lake, Calimesa, Rancho Mirage, Indian Wells and La Quinta.

While Calvert’s new seat is less safe for him than his current one, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, per Wasserman, still rates it as “Likely (Republican).” And Rob Pyers of the California Target Book, which analyzes legislative and congressional races, noted that GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox won the district by nearly 10 percentage points in 2018.

Latino voting power grows

California’s Latino population grew significantly in the past 10 years, and the redistricting commission took notice, drawing districts with majorities of Latino voters.

Six of those districts are Inland Assembly seats, up from four created through 2011 redistricting, Humphrey said. The 29th state Senate District, which includes Highland, Rancho Cucamonga, Fontana and San Bernardino, is majority Latino, Pyers said.

Latino advocates have pushed for more districts that give Latinos a better chance of electing representatives of their choice. Evan McLaughlin, vice president of Sacramento-based Redistricting Partners, sees the influence of the federal Voting Rights Act, which protects minority voters’ interests, in the new maps.

“The federal Voting Rights Act requirement to empower communities of color outweighs the goal of keeping city boundaries together, which is why you see significant so many of the same groupings across all the maps in the Coachella Valley, Western Riverside County, the Victor Valley, or the freeway corridor communities in San Bernardino County,” McLaughlin said via email.

While the maps “are not perfect, we feel like there is a lot of good accomplished with our new state and congressional districts, at least in the Inland Empire” Sky Allen, program director for the progressive group IE United, said via email. “Communities of color across in the region are paired in key Voting Rights Act districts from San Bernardino and Rialto, to Jurupa Valley and Riverside, to Moreno Valley and Perris.”

Political musical chairs begins

A number of principles and laws guided the redistricting panel’s work. Protecting incumbents’ careers was not one of them.

Throughout California, the new maps place two or more lawmakers in the same district, setting off a round of political musical chairs that could shut out some incumbents or force awkward intraparty fights.

In the Inland Empire, Assembly Member Jose Medina, D-Riverside, announced earlier this month he would not seek re-election when his term expires at the end of 2022. The draft maps put Medina and Assembly Members Sabrina Cervantes, D-Riverside; and Eloise Gomez Reyes, D-Grand Terrace; in the same district.

Pyers said the Senate maps split up the district of Sen. Connie Leyva, D-Chino, and put her in a majority-Latino district with Sen. Susan Rubio, D-Baldwin Park.

Leyva, who has announced plans to run for state superintendent of education in 2026, “can either sit out for two years and run (for the 29th Senate District) in 2024 or try her luck against Susan Rubio next year,” Pyers said via email.

“There will be more jockeying over the next few weeks as incumbents examine partisanship and likely competition,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email. “ … There could be some surprises yet to come.”

New districts, distant neighbors

As with 2011 redistricting, some Inland districts cross into Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties.

Murrieta and Temecula, for example, will now join eastern San Diego County in a congressional district represented by San Diego County Republican Darrell Issa. The two cities join an Assembly District that stretches into Orange County and includes Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita.

A portion of the High Desert, including Hesperia and Phelan, will be part of a Senate district with Palmdale, Lancaster and Santa Clarita.

Split up or back together?

Often the biggest critics of redistricting are communities that are split among multiple districts. While keeping communities with common interests together is a priority of redistricting, cities often have to be carved up to meet other goals, like protecting minority voters’ rights.

Redlands is not only split up, it’s divided in the Assembly, state Senate and Congress. Until now it’s only had one assembly member, one state senator and one member of Congress.

Temecula has been represented by Calvert and Issa on Capitol Hill. Now the city is entirely in Issa’s district.

Critics of splitting up communities say it weakens their power by dividing their voice among lawmakers who might be more focused on other parts of their districts. But some argue that having one city having two representatives gives them a greater voice and more chances to get state and federal funding.