A series of classified documents has debunked Western narratives about Kiev’s battlefield prospects
FILE PHOTO: A Ukrainian soldier. © Marek M. Berezowski / Anadolu via Getty Images
French President Emmanuel Macron’s talk about maybe sending troops to aid Kiev may have been spurred by three assessments produced by the French military that painted a dire picture of the Ukraine conflict, according to the magazine Marianne.
The reports, which have somehow found their way into the weekly’s possession, argued that Ukraine wrecked its Western-trained force in the failed 2023 offensive, has run out of men to mobilize, and that its recent loss in Avdeevka shows it can’t even hold the line against Russia.
“Ukraine cannot win this war militarily,” concludes the first report, written in the fall of 2023, following Kiev’s disastrous ground offensive. It praises the Russian forces as the new “tactical and technical” standard of how to run defensive operations and debunks the media myth of “meat assaults.”
For the West to continue pursuing a military solution in Ukraine would be “the most serious error of analysis and judgment,” the classified document said, according to Marianne.
READ MORE: NATO chief refutes Macron comment
Sending French troops to Ukraine would be “unreasonable,” one senior officer wrote. “Make no mistake, up against the Russians we are an army of cheerleaders!” he added.
The second report, outlining the prospects for 2024, says that Kiev needs 35,000 men per month but is “recruiting less than half” of that number, while Russia enlists 30,000 volunteers monthly. Meanwhile, the 2023 offensive “tactically destroyed” half of Kiev’s 12 combat brigades.
“The West can provide 3D printers to manufacture drones or loitering munitions, but will never be able to print men,” the report said.
One solution it advised was sending Western troops to Ukraine to carry out support tasks in the rear, freeing the Ukrainians for frontline duty.
The second report also acknowledged the Western special forces and “soldiers in civilian clothes” had a far greater presence in Ukraine than officially acknowledged, including “quite a few British,” as well as French naval commandos training the Ukrainians.
READ MORE: ‘No limits’ to support for Ukraine – Macron
The third and latest report, which had the French observers “in cold sweat,” described the Battle of Avdeevka as a possible “rout” of Ukrainian forces. It described how Russia created “hell” for the Ukrainian troops by using massive glide bombs to inflict more than 1,000 casualties per day. The French document also described the Ukrainian retreat on February 17 as “sudden and unprepared.”
At the end of February, Macron made an argument to NATO members that all options for helping Ukraine should be “on the table,” implying the possibility of sending ground troops. The idea was publicly repudiated by most members of the US-led bloc, however.
From yesterday
French President Emmanuel Macron will give an urgent address to the nation Thursday evening at about 8:00 PM local time, to discuss the situation in Ukraine. I reported this on last night's Hal Turner Radio Show. It gets worse . . .
The French parliament approved the French president's strategy towards Ukraine and supported the bilateral security agreement signed by Macron and Zelenskyy.
Under a Bi-lateral security agreement, a country like France can agree to send its active duty military troops into Ukraine, which would be separate and distinct from a "NATO" action.
Trouble is, Russia has already made clear that if foreign troops enter Ukraine, they will be legitimate military targets. That would necessarily mean Russia kills the French troops.
PRESUMING that France is going to send troops, since France will have entered Ukraine with the permission of the Ukraine government, when Russia hits those troops, can France turn around and claim that "France has been attacked by Russia?" Could France then try to invoke NATO Treaty Article 5 "Collective Self Defense?"
Russia has made clear from the beginning of its Special Military Operation inside Ukraine, that if NATO declares Article 5 Collective Self Defense against Russia, "It will be a war that no one will win" which means a nuclear war.
The fact that the French Parliament has approved Macron's Bi-Lateral Security Agreement is a terrible development. It heralds the coming of an out-of-control escalation of the Russia Ukraine conflict that could catapult the world into World War 3. Tomorrow. When Macron reveals his plans . . . .
UPDATE 6:24 PM EDT --
Intel sources now tell me that in addition to French active-duty troops being deployed into Ukraine, POLAND intends to send _their_ troops too, under a similar "Bi-Lateral Security Agreement" with Ukraine. Intel sources tell me that POLAND will send their troops to protect the Ukraine Border with Belarus, thus freeing up tens-of-thousands of Ukraine troops to go to the front lines.
If this is accurate info - and it seems to be -- then it might also stand to reason that French troops might go into Ukraine to protect some other part of the country, thereby freeing-up even more Ukraine troops to go to the front line.
Basically, it would be France and Poland telling Ukraine, we'll protect your borders while you send the guys you previously had there, to go fight Russia. This has the "added benefit" of France and Poland trying to claim they are not "combatants" and should not be attacked by Russia.
It's an argument I suspect they will lose.
What's going on here is merely a substitution for Ukraine troops in areas other than the front lines, so that those troops can go kill Russians. The plain result, however, is more dead Russian troops. As such, I doubt Russia will see this type of move as being "non-participants" in the war.
